Monday, April 2, 2012

2012 Chicago Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation

Matt Garza tries to build on a solid 2011 season as a Cub.
For the first time since 2009, there's actually optimism around the Chicago Cubs.  Unlike 2009, it's obvious the Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs this season but unlike the last few seasons, the Cubs actually have a plan moving forward and while the results won't be seen right away, you know they're just a few years away from competing for a title again and hopefully competing for longer than a two year window.  Unfortunately, we can't fast forward to 2014 but this Cubs season should still be exciting because the Cubs have some nice young talent that could be key pieces moving forward such as Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, and Anthony Rizzo.  Today we will look at the Cubs starting rotation for this upcoming season which is really the weak-point the Cubs have in terms of prospects and for the most part, Major League talent.

The Cubs rotation will start out like this in 2012:
Ryan Dempster will start on opening day opposite Stephen Strasburg.  Dempster had a really poor 2011 opening it up with a 6 run, 4 walk, 6 inning performance in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates and finishing off the season with a 9 run, 4 walk, 5.2 inning performance in a loss to the San Diego Padres.  In between that, Dempster wasn't very good either finishing the year with a 4.41 ERA.  This is the last year of Dempster's contract so there's a chance he could be on the move in July but he has a no trade clause blocking trades and he seems to love it in Chicago so odds are he'll finish the year as a Cub.  I can't wait until he's no longer on this team though.  Seems like a good character guy but outside of a fluke 2008 season which ended with a horrendous playoff appearance in game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers , he's been a rather garbage pitcher.  I do think Dempster will improve slightly in 2012 but Dale Sveum's first minor bad move as Cubs manager is naming Dempster the opening day starter over Matt Garza.      
Matt Garza was awesome last year for the Cubs and stats really don't do him justice at all.  He finished with a 3.83 ERA but Garza pitched much better than this.  Garza posted a career high number of strikeouts and despite concerns over his attitude he seemed like a great clubhouse guy for much of last season earning him a title as a fan favorite in Chicago.  One of the few concerns from Matt Garza last year was his fielding.  Garza committed 11 errors last season, most of them silly, and had a fielding percentage of an abysmal .788%.  There were some talks of Garza being traded in the offseason and for the right deal, I'd still consider doing it but he could be a valuable piece moving forward as the Cubs continue to get better and put better pitching around him.
Jeff Samardzija has had a really bumpy road in his three seasons as a major leaguer.  In 2008, Samardzija came onto the scene as a reliever in late July and actually did a really good job and became a pretty popular Cub in Chicago and even got his own Sports Illustrated article that year.  In 2009 however, Shark really dropped off finishing the year with a dismal 7.53 ERA and the struggles continued in 2010 as he was bounced up and down from Iowa to Chicago.  Last year, Shark had an expanded role in a weak bullpen and he made the most out of his opportunity having a fantastic year in a season where nobody really stepped up in the bullpen.  This year, Shark will be put to a bigger test as he starts the season in the starting rotation for the first time in his career.  Shark has started ten times before and really hasn't had much success but he had a really good Spring and the Cubs are hoping this carries over to the regular season.  In a year where the Cubs aren't expected to do much, why not give Shark an opportunity to be a starting rotation piece for the future if he succeeds?  If Shark doesn't succeed, he proved last year he could be a valuable reliever.
Chris Volstad came over from the Miami Marlins in the Carlos Zambrano deal and is a tall righty (6'8!!!) who is still just 25 years old.  Volstad had a nice rookie season with the Marlins coming up in early July but in years since, hitters and teams have seemed to adjust to him well and he hasn't adjusted yet.  There's still time for Volstad to adjust and maybe a change of scenery will do him well.  Up until his last Spring Training start, he's been more than excellent in Spring Training so hopefully he carries this over to the regular season.
Paul Maholm is a left-handed pitcher who signed as a free agent this offseason coming from the Pittsburgh Pirates where he spent his previous seven MLB seasons.  Maholm wasn't anything special in Pittsburgh but put together numerous solid seasons.  Being 29 years old and turning 30 in June, Maholm is more than likely a place-filler until the Cubs can draft, sign, or acquire younger pitching talent for the future.  Paul is probably really upset that he doesn't have to face the Cubs anymore because he put up a 1.53 ERA in 3 starts against the Cubs last season.  

The Cubs rotation is going to need to improve in the next few years to have the Cubs contending for titles but for right now, it's a solid, fairly young rotation that has room to get better.  If one of the starters struggles, you'll have Randy Wells and Travis Wood in AAA waiting in the wings.  Wood is a solid, young starter who was acquired in the Sean Marshall trade with the Reds who really struggled in Spring Training causing him to start the season in AAA.  Randy Wells has been just terrible ever since his solid 2009 season and probably should have been cut last season.  Tomorrow we'll look at the Cubs bullpen and hitters for this upcoming season.