2012 NFL Predictions

---Jeff reserves the right to make changes to these predictions up until the beginning of the season--

NFC East
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants*
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) Washington Redskins

NFC South
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) New Orleans Saints
3) Tampa Bay Bucs
4) Carolina Panthers

NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears (Assuming Forte shows up for the season and he and Jay Cutler stay healthy!)*
3) Detroit Lions
4) Minnesota Vikings

NFC West
1) San Francisco 49ers
2) Arizona Cardinals
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) St. Louis Rams

AFC East
1) New England Patriots
2) New York Jets
3) Buffalo Bills
4) Miami Dolphins

AFC South
1) Houston Texans
2) Tennessee Titans
3) Jacksonville Jaguars
4) Indianapolis Colts

AFC North
1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Pittsburgh Steelers*
3) Cincinnati Bengals
4) Cleveland Browns

AFC West
1) Denver Broncos
2) San Diego Chargers*
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Kansas City Chiefs

*Wild Card

Playoffs:

NFC
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Atlanta Falcons
3) San Francisco 49ers
4) Philadelphia Eagles
5) Chicago Bears
6) New York Giants

Wild Card
49ers defeat Giants
Bears defeat Eagles

Divisional
Packers defeat Bears
Falcons defeat 49ers

NFC Championship
Packers defeat Falcons

AFC
1) New England Patriots
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Houston Texans
4) Denver Broncos
5) Pittsburgh Steelers
6) San Diego Chargers

Wild Card
Texans defeat Chargers
Steelers defeat Broncos

Divisional
Patriots defeat Steelers
Ravens defeat Texans

AFC Championship
Patriots defeat Ravens

SUPER BOWL
Packers defeat Patriots

2012 Chicago Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation

Matt Garza tries to build on a solid 2011 season as a Cub.

For the first time since 2009, there's actually optimism around the Chicago Cubs.  Unlike 2009, it's obvious the Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs this season but unlike the last few seasons, the Cubs actually have a plan moving forward and while the results won't be seen right away, you know they're just a few years away from competing for a title again and hopefully competing for longer than a two year window.  Unfortunately, we can't fast forward to 2014 but this Cubs season should still be exciting because the Cubs have some nice young talent that could be key pieces moving forward such as Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, and Anthony Rizzo.  Today we will look at the Cubs starting rotation for this upcoming season which is really the weak-point the Cubs have in terms of prospects and for the most part, Major League talent.

The Cubs rotation will start out like this in 2012:

Ryan Dempster will start on opening day opposite Stephen Strasburg.  Dempster had a really poor 2011 opening it up with a 6 run, 4 walk, 6 inning performance in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates and finishing off the season with a 9 run, 4 walk, 5.2 inning performance in a loss to the San Diego Padres.  In between that, Dempster wasn't very good either finishing the year with a 4.41 ERA.  This is the last year of Dempster's contract so there's a chance he could be on the move in July but he has a no trade clause blocking trades and he seems to love it in Chicago so odds are he'll finish the year as a Cub.  I can't wait until he's no longer on this team though.  Seems like a good character guy but outside of a fluke 2008 season which ended with a horrendous playoff appearance in game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers , he's been a rather garbage pitcher.  I do think Dempster will improve slightly in 2012 but Dale Sveum's first minor bad move as Cubs manager is naming Dempster the opening day starter over Matt Garza.      

Matt Garza was awesome last year for the Cubs and stats really don't do him justice at all.  He finished with a 3.83 ERA but Garza pitched much better than this.  Garza posted a career high number of strikeouts and despite concerns over his attitude he seemed like a great clubhouse guy for much of last season earning him a title as a fan favorite in Chicago.  One of the few concerns from Matt Garza last year was his fielding.  Garza committed 11 errors last season, most of them silly, and had a fielding percentage of an abysmal .788%.  There were some talks of Garza being traded in the offseason and for the right deal, I'd still consider doing it but he could be a valuable piece moving forward as the Cubs continue to get better and put better pitching around him.

Jeff Samardzija has had a really bumpy road in his three seasons as a major leaguer.  In 2008, Samardzija came onto the scene as a reliever in late July and actually did a really good job and became a pretty popular Cub in Chicago and even got his own Sports Illustrated article that year.  In 2009 however, Shark really dropped off finishing the year with a dismal 7.53 ERA and the struggles continued in 2010 as he was bounced up and down from Iowa to Chicago.  Last year, Shark had an expanded role in a weak bullpen and he made the most out of his opportunity having a fantastic year in a season where nobody really stepped up in the bullpen.  This year, Shark will be put to a bigger test as he starts the season in the starting rotation for the first time in his career.  Shark has started ten times before and really hasn't had much success but he had a really good Spring and the Cubs are hoping this carries over to the regular season.  In a year where the Cubs aren't expected to do much, why not give Shark an opportunity to be a starting rotation piece for the future if he succeeds?  If Shark doesn't succeed, he proved last year he could be a valuable reliever.

Chris Volstad came over from the Miami Marlins in the Carlos Zambrano deal and is a tall righty (6'8!!!) who is still just 25 years old.  Volstad had a nice rookie season with the Marlins coming up in early July but in years since, hitters and teams have seemed to adjust to him well and he hasn't adjusted yet.  There's still time for Volstad to adjust and maybe a change of scenery will do him well.  Up until his last Spring Training start, he's been more than excellent in Spring Training so hopefully he carries this over to the regular season.

Paul Maholm is a left-handed pitcher who signed as a free agent this offseason coming from the Pittsburgh Pirates where he spent his previous seven MLB seasons.  Maholm wasn't anything special in Pittsburgh but put together numerous solid seasons.  Being 29 years old and turning 30 in June, Maholm is more than likely a place-filler until the Cubs can draft, sign, or acquire younger pitching talent for the future.  Paul is probably really upset that he doesn't have to face the Cubs anymore because he put up a 1.53 ERA in 3 starts against the Cubs last season.  

The Cubs rotation is going to need to improve in the next few years to have the Cubs contending for titles but for right now, it's a solid, fairly young rotation that has room to get better.  If one of the starters struggles, you'll have Randy Wells and Travis Wood in AAA waiting in the wings.  Wood is a solid, young starter who was acquired in the Sean Marshall trade with the Reds who really struggled in Spring Training causing him to start the season in AAA.  Randy Wells has been just terrible ever since his solid 2009 season and probably should have been cut last season.  Tomorrow we'll look at the Cubs bullpen and hitters for this upcoming season.

Really Early MLB Predictions for 2012--National League

The Reds will be celebrating an NL Central title this season.

This offseason isn't over but I think it's a good time to give you my early predictions for the 2012 MLB season after the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine year deal today.  Let's start with the National League Central which has lost 2 of it's best hitters in the last month and has seen the Cubs hiring a top 5 GM in baseball.

1) Cincinnati Reds
Last year I was down on the Reds going into the season but they've done a great job at upgrading their team this offseason.  Outside of the Miami Marlins, I think the Reds have put together the best offseason of any team.  They have arguably the deepest bullpen in baseball with the signing of Ryan Madson, the trade of Sean Marshall for Travis Wood, and Aroldis Chapman coming back.  The Reds have the best offense in the NL Central in my opinion with Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips.  The Reds do have some major holes though especially at starting pitching.  Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos are great at the top of the rotation but after that you have a ton of question marks in Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Mike Leake.  If the Reds want to do anything in the postseason, they're going to need to upgrade their rotation by the trade deadline but I still have the Reds as the kings of the NL Central.

2) St. Louis Cardinals
The defending World Series champions had an amazing run at the end of the season last year but four months after winning it all, they look like a completely different team.  Gone is Albert Pujols a top 5 hitter in baseball and their team leader, gone is Tony La Russa a top 5 manager in baseball and a guy that got the most out of all his teams, gone is Dave Duncan who was the best pitching coach in baseball and turned a ton of nobodies into above-average starters or higher.   New manager Mike Matheny still has a team with a solid offense but a ton of question marks.  Will Matt Holiday recover from a less than stellar postseason?  Will David Freese carry his great World Series performance over to this season?  Will Lance Berkman prove last season was not just a fluke?  Can Carlos Beltran be what Lance Berkman was last year?   The Cardinals rotation looks good on paper but can Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter stay healthy and will Kyle Loshe or Jamie Garcia step up again to be their solid number three starter?

3) Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have had a very tough offseason.  First they found out Ryan Braun was going to be suspended 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance and then they lost Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers.  If the Brewers want to make the playoffs again this season, they're going to need to get off to a good start in the first 50 games when Braun is out and I don't think they'll get off to that good start.  Aramis Ramirez had a pretty good offensive season last year but his poor baserunning and poor fielding almost outweighs anything he does at the plate.  The Brewers rotation looks pretty good on paper but I'm not that big of a fan of Zach Grineke who I thought was just average last season.  I really like Shawn Marcum but he's shown the inability to stay healthy throughout his career.

4) Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a tough team to gauge.  They were an above-average team last season before Jerry Meals made that horrible call at home plate in Atlanta.  After that, the Pirates slid back to the team they've looked like for the last two decades.  The Pirates really didn't do anything to improve themselves this offseason as usual and if they want to succeed this season, they'll have to improve from within which I don't think is likely.

5) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs won't be good this season but they'll be much more exciting than last season because they actually have a plan moving forward.  Oh and Mike Quade isn't the manager anymore.  Theo Epstein has come in and hasn't made the big moves like signing Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder but has made the smart moves.  Trading Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo, one of the best young first base prospects in baseball, is a much smarter move than signing a Prince Fielder for 9 years.  Rizzo won't start the year on the Cubs but will be up probably before July.

6) Houston Astros
Last year in the NL Central for this terrible team and good riddance.  The Astros are actually in much better shape this year than they were last year but this isn't say much at all.

Exclusive Start Caleb Hanie's NBA Predictions!

The Three Dipshits will win a ring this year

East:
1) Miami Heat
The Heat will come out this season with a chip on their shoulder and will dominate their competition all the way to an NBA title.
2) Chicago Bulls
The Bulls will be a good team in 2012 but they still are a shooting guard short of being a title team.  Rip Hamilton is an upgrade but he doesn't put you over the top.  It will be interesting to see how Carlos Boozer comes out after sucking last season.
3) New York Knicks
Tyson Chandler was a huge reason why the Mavericks won the NBA championship last year but how will he fit in D'Antoni's system?  The Knicks look very good this season but still lack the depth to win a championship.
4) Boston Celtics
Another year older and in a season where the schedule is condensed, this won't help the Celtics at all.  Wouldn't be surprised if they drop to the 5 spot.
5) Atlanta Hawks
Is Jeff Teague as good as he played in the playoffs last season?  The Hawks still have a good team but giving Joe Johnson that ridiculous contract ensures they will never get over the top.
6) Indiana Pacers
If David West can stay healthy, the Pacers could be a good team in 2012.  Remember, they could have easily upset the Bulls in the first round last playoffs.  Will they build off this success?
7) Philadelphia 76ers
Not a top-heavy team but a very good defensive team with a lot of depth.  Will Doug Collins lead the Sixers to another playoffs?
8) New Jersey Nets
If they get Dwight Howard at the trade deadline, they'll probably move up to the 5 or 6 seed and could be potential playoff spoilers.

West:
1) Dallas Mavericks
Lost Tyson Chandler but added Lamar Odom.  I don't think they're good enough to repeat but they have the best bench in the NBA.
2) Oklahoma City Thunder
I fully expect the Thunder to grow up and reach the Finals in a winnable West this season.
3) Los Angeles Lakers
Unless they get Dwight Howard before the trade deadline, the Lakers will fall short of the Finals again. Trading away Lamar Odom for nothing?  Yeah brilliant.
4) Los Angeles Clippers
Need to fire Vinny Del Negro but right now they're the most exciting team in the NBA.  Can't wait for their bandwagon to fill up.
5) Memphis Grizzlies
Last year's Cinderella team brings back Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and has the size that can beat anyone in the West.  They'll be a dangerous team in the playoffs again.
6) San Antonio Spurs
Like the Celtics, they're too old for this condensed schedule so expect this to influence their seed.  Still a dangerous team in the playoffs despite age.
7) Portland Trail Blazers
Loved the addition of Gerald Wallace at the deadline in February but too many key injuries to climb the ladder in the West.
8) Golden State Warriors
Could see the Phoenix Suns in this spot as well but I think the Warriors have enough to get back in the playoffs.

Playoffs:
Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat defeat Chicago Bulls in 6
Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Los Angeles Lakers in 5

NBA Finals:
Miami Heat defeat Oklahoma City Thunder in 6

Awards


MVP: 
Kevin Durant
The Derrick Rose hype is gone and he's expected to do good this season and will be good, Dwight Howard will probably be changing teams halfway through the year so I think this eliminates him, LeBron James is still sharing the load with Dwyane Wade and unless they have a historic season, this will eliminate him.  I think it's time for Kevin Durant to get this much-deserved award.

Rookie of the Year:
Derrick Williams
I see Kyrie Irving struggling in his first year in Cleveland while Derrick Williams is pretty much as NBA ready as they get.  I don't think Derrick Williams is that great but he's going to give you the exciting plays like Blake Griffin which will attract attention and quite frankly, this is a pretty weak rookie class compared to year's past.

Coach of the Year Candidates:
Lionel Hollins
Tom Thibodeau
Doug Collins
Mike D'Antoni

Hanie is better than Cutler?

Worst Quarterback in Football---Caleb Hanie

-First off, for those that thought Caleb Hanie was better than Jay Cutler after the NFC Championship game last January, I want you dead by the morning.  Oh and for those that called Cutler a pussy after that game, Matt Forte has the same injury (a grade 2 MCL sprain) that Cutler had.  Forte is expected to miss 2-to-4 week but just sit him out, the Bears are done.

-Caleb Hanie is the worst quarterback I've seen since Craig Krenzel.  I don't think there's a QB in the NFL right now worse than Hanie and as dumb as Hanie.  He has no pocket presence whatsoever and he doesn't seem to know the NFL rules.  I hate McNabb and don't want to sign him but he can't be any worse than Hanie is right now.  Enderle can't be any worse either.  Just take Hanie off the field.

-For those Bears fans that were rooting for the Packers today to help the Bears playoff chances, I hope you're happy when the Packers finish 19-0 (they're going to do it) and the Bears are sitting home after a first round exit (this will happen as well).

-Between the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series, the Miami Heat embarrassing the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals thanks to management's refusal to get a 2 guard something they needed to win a championship, and the Vancouver Canucks beating the Blackhawks in game 7 on a late overtime goal, this is the worst possible time to be a Chicago sports fan.  Oh and the Packers are going to finish 19-0 and win their second straight Super Bowl.  Oh and Jay Cutler and Matt Forte are hurt.

There is some good news (maybe):
- Baseball winter meetings are starting and the Cubs may make a big splash in Albert Pujols.  I've been against signing Albert but it sounds like the Cubs are going to offer him a shorter deal with more money per year.  I would love signing Albert for a 5 year deal but anything above 7, no thanks.  If the Cubs can sign Pujols and sign 1 or 2 solid starters, they could compete this year.  But Theo need to focus more on the starting pitching which is the biggest need right now.

-The Chicago Bulls are almost about to get underway and are going to add a shooting guard (wish they would have thought of this in February).  This is my list of shooting guards I want in order:
1) Aaron Afflalo
2) Caron Butler
3) Nick Young
4) Jason Richardson
5) Jamal Crawford
6) Josh Howard
7) Vince Carter
8) Tracy McGrady

NBA/NBAPA reaches tentative agreement

From ESPN:

NEW YORK -- NBA owners and players reached a tentative agreement early Saturday to end the 149-day lockout.
After a secret meeting earlier this week, the sides met for more than 15 hours Friday, working to try to save the season. This handshake deal, however, still must be ratified by both owners and players.
"We've reached a tentative understanding that is subject to a variety of approvals and very complex machinations, but we're optimistic that will all come to pass and that the NBA season will begin Dec. 25," Commissioner David Stern said.

NBA free agency will open on December 9th and the Bulls will have a huge hole to fill at shooting guard.  A week ago, Stephen A. Smith said the Bulls would sign Tracy McGrady as soon as the lockout was lifted.  No thanks.

Ivan DeJesus out

Buried under the somber Jay Cutler stories is this article from Gordon Wittenmeyer.

Cubs manager Dale Sveum has made some of his first staff decisions, including retaining well-regarded hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, one of the top-paid coaches in the game. He’s under contract through 2012.  The two other coaches under contract through next year — bullpen coach Lester Strode and bench coach Pat Listach — also are expected to be asked back. Sources said first-base coach Bob Dernier and third-base coach Ivan DeJesus were informed they won’t be back. Pitching coach Mark Riggins spoke with Sveum over the weekend, according to a source, and was expected to talk again soon.

First off, while Rudy Jaramillo is extremely overpaid, he's still one of the better hitting coaches in baseball. The one thing that he needs to do next season is to get the Cubs to be more patient at the plate something that they've struggled with since 2008.

But the best news coming out of this story is the fact that Ivan DeJesus will not be on the Cubs staff next year. DeJesus is the worst 3rd base coach the Cubs have had since Wavin Wendell Kim in 2004 and was probably the worst 3rd base coach in baseball last season. So many times last year the Cubs had horrible sends at 3rd base that costed them runs.

 The next move Sveum needs to make is to get rid of Mark Riggins who did an awful job in his 1st season as Cubs pitching coach last year. He should have never had the job anyways.

It's Hanie Time!

So Jay Cutler is going to be out for the rest of the regular season and we probably won't see him again until next season pending Caleb Hanie doing the unthinkable and leading the Bears to the playoffs and a wild card round win. If Jay Cutler is indeed out for 6 to 8 weeks, this is how the Bears schedule will end up:

@ Oakland
Raiders 30, Bears 9
This was a toss-up game before Jay Cutler got hurt but now Oakland should win this game rather easily and end the Bears five game losing streak. The Raiders currently have a playoff spot if the season ended today and are playing great football after the Carson Palmer trade even with Darren McFadden sidelined with an injury. McFadden might be back for this game but if he's not ready, Michael Bush has done a great job filling in for him. The Raiders best receiver Jacoby Ford also missed his last game with a foot injury. Playing in Oakland in front of the Black Hole is probably not the way you want to make your first start. Raiders win.
Bears: 7-4

VS Kansas City
Bears 17, Chiefs 10
Expect this one to be a low scoring game with the Chiefs losing both Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassell to injuries. The Chiefs are starting some dude named Tyler Palko at quarterback right now. Isn't that Keanu Reeves' character from "The Replacements"? This is going to be an ugly game but the Bears defense should lead them to victory.
Bears: 8-4

@ Denver
Bears 16, Broncos 13
The Broncos have been playing great under Tim Tebow but I really don't think this will continue against the Bears. I had this pegged as an automatic win before Cutler went out but now it might be a little closer but I still think the Bears find a way to win. The Bears have done a great job in the past in containing run-first quarterbacks that are better than Tebow and I don't expect this trend to stop. I hope Von Miller doesn't kill Hanie though.
Bears: 9-4

VS Seattle
Bears 17 Seahawks 10
Another close win for the Bears. Tavaris Jackson is another quarterback who like Michael Vick is run-first but obviously he doesn't have the speed or the arm like Michael Vick. Expect the Bears to win another low-scoring game.
Bears: 10-4

@ Green Bay
Packers 31, Bears 13
I didn't have the Bears winning this game before Jay Cutler got hurt although I thought the Bears could give the Packers a mini-scare. Maybe the Bears will get a let-down from the Packers but this is pretty much an automatic loss.
Bears: 10-5

@ Minnesota
Bears 24, Vikings 20
If 10 wins doesn't get you in the playoffs as a wild card, then the season could come down to this. There might be an outside chance that Cutler could return for this game if the Bears really need him I think but this should be Hanie's game assuming he's still starting. The Vikings are not a good team and have a terrible secondary but teams like the Vikings who have nothing to play for at the end of the season scare the shit out of me and playing on the road at the Metrodome is never an easy task especially for an inexperienced quarterback like Hanie. I have the Bears winning this game but it could really go either way.
Bears: 11-5

11 wins will get you into the playoffs in the NFC and the Bears would get either the Cowboys, Giants, or Saints on the road in the Wild Card playoff game. My money is on New Orleans being the 3rd seed. It'll be fun seeing Caleb Hanie potentially going into the Superdome for a playoff win. Thankfully the Bears have a pretty easy schedule to end the year. I had them tabbed at 12-4 if Cutler finished the year so 11-5 with Hanie isn't too big of a drop-off but losing Cutler for a potential playoff game basically guarantees a loss.

Hanie is not a bad quarterback but he's not a good quarterback either. People who still don't like Cutler are going to learn to appreciate him by the time this season is over. I guarantee it.