As I said in my American League prediction post, these predictions are sure to be wrong. I went with the predictable division winners which never happens. There's always going to be one team like last years Cincinnati Reds or almost last years San Diego Padres which surprises everyone. Hopefully this year, that's the Chicago Cubs. Not holding my breath there.
NL East:
1.Phillies
2.Braves (Wildcard)
3.Marlins
4.Mets
5.Nationals
With the addition of Cliff Lee this offseason, the Phillies have far and away the best pitching rotation in baseball. A rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and Joe Blanton is just filthy. At one point in time, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt were all #1's for their respective teams. Not to be outdone, the Phillies also boast a very good offense as well. They have depth or potential at every position. The only question the Phillies lineup has is their outfield. Raul Ibanez, as expected, was not the player he was in his first season with the Phillies only OPSing .793 and Shane Victorino saw his batting average dip to .259 from .292 in 2009. Domonic Brown struggled in limited at-bats last year in his first stint in the big leagues but he's regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball and might be your National League Rookie of the Year this season if he puts it together. The Phillies bullpen looks very solid. Brad Lidge rebounded last season after a terrible 2009 and only blew 5 saves compared to 11 the season before. The Phillies are going to have a huge season and I think it would be a shock if they didn't win at least 100 games. This team is that good.
The Fredi Gonzalez era begins in Atlanta this season as Bobby Cox retired after 32 years of managing last season. Like the Phillies, the Braves also boast a very good starting pitching staff. It's obviously not as top-heavy as the Phillies but the Braves have four very solid starters in Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Tommy Hanson. Last year, Tommy Hanson had a rough year compared to his rookie year as he saw his ERA slip to 3.33 but I expect him to rebound and think that was just a sign of the proverbial "sophomore slump". Hanson still has all the tools to be a great pitcher in the majors and I fully expect him to put all that together this season. Jair Jurrjens is another guy on this staff who should also put up better stats than he did last season. There's a lot of young talent in this Braves bullpen including Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty and a veteran in Scott Linebrink who they signed this offseason from the White Sox. It's going to be tough to say if this bullpen is going to be a strong point or a weak point with all the young pitchers but they have the talent to be good. The Braves offense improved this offseason with the trade for second baseman Dan Uggla who I'm a big fan of. The addition of Uggla adds yet another big power bat to this lineup that already includes Brian McCann, last year's rookie phenom Jason Heyward, Alex Gonzalez who surprisingly hit 23 home runs last year, and of course Chipper Jones. The Braves also have Martin Prado in left field who was a very solid bat for them last season hitting .307. Rookie Freddie Freeman is expected to start at first base this year and if he puts it together this season, he could easily win NL Rookie of the Year and give the Braves two straight for that award. I think despite Bobby Cox leaving, this Braves team should be a better team than last season's team. Unfortunately, with the addition of Cliff Lee, this more than likely blocks them from winning the division. They should easily be a shoo-in for the NL Wild Card this season though.
You can never count the Florida Marlins out in the NL East. It feels like every season, the Marlins are in it until the end despite experts giving them no chance at the start of the season. The Florida Marlins have a very solid rotation anchored by Josh Johnson who was a Cy Young candidate last year putting up a very impressive 2.30 ERA. When Johnson is healthy, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Florida Marlins add Javier Vazquez this season who had a very disappointing season last year with the New York Yankees. Vazquez put up an ERA over 5.00 but maybe getting out of the toughest division in baseball and heading to the National League East again will help him out. Vazquez put up a 2.87 in the NL East two years ago with the Atlanta Braves. I really think the Marlins bullpen is going to be the downfall of this team this year. There's really no solid reliever on this team. Leo Nunez blew 8 games last season as the closer and has blown 15 games in two seasons with the Marlins. The Marlins offense is obviously anchored by Hanley Ramirez who actually had a down year last season. He hit .300 with 21 home runs and had 32 stolen bases but for the first time since his rookie year, Hanley's OPS was in the .800's. I fully expect him to rebound this year and put up great numbers like he's capable of putting up. Mike Stanton had a very good rookie year last season for the Marlins as he hit .259 with 22 home runs. Stanton is only 22 years old so he will only get better this season. Chris Coghlan won the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year and like the 2008 NL ROY winner Geovany Soto, Coghlan followed up his great rookie season with a bust of a sophomore season. Coghlan only hit .258 with 5 home runs and had an OPS of just .718. The Marlins should be a solid team in 2011 but it won't be enough to make the playoffs again. Expect to see them hovering around ,500 for most of the season.
Don't expect to see much out of the New York Mets or Washington Nationals this season. The Mets are just an absolute mess. There's some bright spots on the Mets team like Ike Davis who had an excellent rookie season for them last year and should only improve this season and David Wright who had a good comeback year last season with 28 home runs. But there are way too many bad spots on this team that's going to hurt them. The Mets outfield is just an overpaid mess with Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran who both had awful seasons last year although I expect both to recover a little this season. Jason Bay has always been a consistent hitter in his career so I think last year was a fluke and just has to make an adjustment to Citi Field. Carlos Beltran was injured for almost 2/3 of the season last year. The Nationals have a ton of potential for the future with the addition of Bryce Harper who will more than likely play all season in the minors this year and Stephen Strasburg who will be back in the rotation a little bit later in this season coming off elbow surgery but the Nationals are still a bad team outside of them. I like Drew Storen in the bullpen who was drafted in the same draft as Strasburg in 2009. The Nationals also made a pretty good addition to their starting rotation this offseason acquiring Tom Gorzelanny from the Cubs. But don't expect much out of this Nationals team. Their fans still have a lot to be happy about because if they make the right moves, they're only a few years off from potentially being a playoff caliber team. But not this season.
NL Central
1.Cardinals
2.Reds
3.Brewers
4.Cubs
5.Astros
6.Pirates
I see the National League Central as a tough division to pick because I could easily see four teams finishing on top (yes, I am giving a small outside chance to the Cubs although that's if everything goes right for them this season which won't happen). I picked the Cardinals to finish first this season just because I think last year was an fluke season and I think they're better than they played. The Cardinals still have one of the (if not for the Phillies it would be the best by far) best 1-2 punches in baseball with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright had a serious NL Cy Young case last year winning 20 games and finishing with a 2.42 ERA while Carpenter actually had a down year compared to 2009 where he was ridiculous. Jamie Garcia was another one of those annoying Cardinals who come out of the middle of nowhere and put up a great season. Just a rookie last season, Garcia went 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA. I have my concerns about Jake Westbrook though. He did solid last year with the Cardinals after being traded to them by the Indians but I just don't think he's that great of a pitcher anymore and I could easily see him putting up an ERA in the low 5.00's this season. If I'm a Cardinals fan, Jake Westbrook scares me this year. The Cardinals bullpen is pretty solid as well. Ryan Franklin wasn't as good as he was in 2009 but he was still very solid. For hopefully the last time ever, Albert Pujols will be at first base. Pujols wasn't even that good last season. Well for him. He hit .312 with 42 home runs and 118 RBI's and "only" had an OPS of 1.011. Jesus, stop slacking Albert. The Cardinals outfield is going to be very good this season with Matt Holliday in left, Colby Rasmus in center, and Lance Berkman in right. Okay, this isn't the best defensive outfield in baseball (probably the worst outside of the Cubs of course) but there's so much power here. Lance Berkman had the worst season of his career last year and could be on the downhill of his career but I see him having a very solid season this year. He won't be the player he once was with Houston but he'll put up very good numbers and Cardinals fans will love him. Yadier Molina is still probably the best defensive catcher in baseball but he didn't hit as good as usual last season. As a Cubs fan, I'd love to see this continue because the Cardinals are just that more dangerous when they have Molina hitting. I'd like to personally thank Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak for trading for Ryan Theriot. Theriot is a terrible baseball player that can't hit or field. When interviewed by a St. Louis radio station the day he was traded there, Theriot said "I'm finally on the right side of the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry". Cubs fans agree Theriot. Believe me Ryan, we love to see you in a Cardinals uniform as well. Of course in typical Cardinals fashion, expect to see Theriot in the All Star Game this season.
I keep telling everyone that the 2010 Cincinnati Reds were a fluke. I have no reasoning behind why I think this. I just strongly believe that the Reds overplayed their abilities last season. But looking over their depth chart and team going into this season, this team is no fluke. If I wasn't so lazy, I'd probably change it up and put the Reds in 1st but I don't feel like doing that and I don't want to have five division winners from last year win the division this year. That's not gonna happen. The Reds have a very solid rotation going into this season with Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood. This team is so deep with pitching that they even have Mike Leake who I like as well start. I don't like the Reds bullpen though. Aroldis Chapman is obviously an unbelievable talent and if he stays healthy, he'll easily be the best pitcher in this bullpen but outside of him, I don't like this bullpen. Francisco Cordero is getting up there in age and didn't have the best season last year blowing 8 games. Joey Votto was probably the best hitter in the National League last year. He had the best OPS in the NL last year at 1.024. Jay Bruce had a very solid year as well hitting 25 home runs and batting .281. Here's the reason why I think the Reds were a fluke last year. Scott Rolen. Rolen hit .285 last year with 20 home runs and OPS'ed .854. Rolen is turning 36 this season. I just don't expect him to put up anywhere close to these numbers this season. I actually see Rolen hurting the Reds more than he helps them this season.
I have the Brewers finishing 3rd in the NL Central this season but this is a team I could easily see finishing 1st. The Brewers problems these past few years has been that they lack pitching. So what did they do this offseason? Grab pitching. They made the biggest move this offseason other than the Phillies signing Cliff Lee in trading for Zach Grienke who won the Cy Young in 2009. The Brewers also went out and traded for Shawn Marcum who I think was the most underrated move of the offseason from any team in Major League Baseball. If Marcum stays healthy (and this is a big if), I could see Marcum putting up very solid numbers and I give him an outside chance of making the NL All Star Team. Marcum leaves the best hitting division in baseball and goes to one of the worst. I fully expect Marcum to have a great season. Here's what brings the Brewers down in my eyes. Their bullpen isn't good. John Axford did a great job replacing Trevor Hoffman last season as closer and ended up saving 24 games and only blowing 3 so it'll be interesting to see if he can have the same type of success this season. Takashi Saito had a solid season with the Braves last year but he's 40 years old so it's tough to predict what he'll do this season. LaTroy Hawkins sucks (enough said there). The Brewers still have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun so they'll always be very dangerous in the middle. Casey McGehee had a very good season last year hitting .285 with 23 home runs and 104 RBI's. Fun fact: Jim Hendry released him. Why hasn't Hendry been fired again? Rickie Weeks hit 29 home runs last year and Corey Hart hit 31 home runs last year so the power is there for this team to be good. I just think the bullpen will be the downfall of this team.
For the Cubs, I give them a very outside chance at making the playoffs as I said before. Everything needs to go right which means guys need to have career years and guys need to stay healthy. This is the Cubs we're talking about so none of this will happen. You can read my extensive report on the 2011 Cubs here but I'll give a quick report here. The Cubs have a very solid rotation. There's no true ace in this staff but a rotation consisting of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and Carlos Silva is very solid 1 through 5. Carlos Zambrano went 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 74 innings pitched after the All Star Break last year after he returned from the loony house and this easily made him one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball after the break. If Zambrano can pitch like he did after the break this season, the Cubs are going to be in very good shape. As far as I see the Matt Garza trade, unless your prospect is projected to be an All Star, prospects are meant to be traded for sure-things and Matt Garza is a sure thing. I think it was a very good trade for the Cubs and Garza is an excellent addition. Garza leaves the best hitting division in baseball and moves to the National League for the first time in career and as we saw with Silva last year, there's an adjustment period for hitters to get used to a guy they've never seen before. Expect Garza to have a very good season this year. The Cubs bullpen was their weakspot last year but this season it actually looks very solid with the addition of Kerry Wood this offseason. Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol were both awesome last season and Wood was awesome in his time with the Yankees as well last season. Also, Andrew Cashner will more than likely start in the bullpen this season and he could be a big addition as well in his 2nd season. As far as the Cubs offense looks, it's an absolute mess especially in the outfield. Marlon Byrd was a nice surprise last season but I'm expecting him to trend downwards this year. The one brightspot for the Cubs is Starlin Castro who had an excellent rookie season last year and should only improve this season. Two things that Castro needs to work on this season is stealing bases (he has to speed necessary to steal a lot of bases and as the Cubs projected leadoff hitter, the Cubs need him to steal bases to be successful this season) and he needs to work on his fielding. The biggest weakness on the 2011 Cubs is their weak bench. If Tyler Colvin does start at right field this season, this leaves Kosuke Fukudome, Darwin Barney, Koyie Hill, Jeff Baker, and Fernando Perez as your bench players. There is no power at all coming off the bench for this team. The pitching is there this season for the Cubs but the Cubs offense is going to struggle and that will be the downfall of the 2011 Cubs.
The Astros are in a better position than they were last season at this time in my opinion but they are still a mess of a team. They're rotation actually looks somewhat competent going into this season. Brett Myers had a very good season last year. Not only did he revive his baseball career with a 14-8 record and 3.14 ERA, but he managed not to beat his wife and that's always a good thing. Wandy RodrÃguez was also solid last year putting up a 11-12 record with a 3.60 ERA. The Astros also made a good acquisition in getting J.A. Happ from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt deal. The Astros bullpen is a mess outside of Brandon Lyon (who isn't that great himself) so they're not even worst mentioning. The Astros offense is okay at best. Hunter Pence had a down year last year but should recover this year. Chris Johnson was a pleasant surprise for them last year. Michael Bourn steals a ton of bases and it's a shame he can't hit. But Carlos Lee is beginning to decline, Jason Castro (their catcher) can't hit, and Brett Wallace is continuing his tour of playing for every team in baseball before he's 30. Not to mention the fact that the Astros might have the worst double play combination in baseball in Clint Barmes and Bill Hall. Jesus that's awful. And so are the Astros.
And now the Pittsburgh PIrates. Jesus can we get onto the National League West please? I'm sure the 2 people that read my blog didn't make it past the NL East anyways.
NL West
1.Rockies
2.Giants
3.Dodgers
4.Padres
5.D'Backs
I think the Rockies are my boldest prediction of these predictions. Everyone expects the San Fransisco Giants to repeat as NL West champions this year but I see the Giants slipping and the Rockets taking their place. The Rockets are very weak at the starting pitcher spot outside of Ubaldo Jimenez and I think they're going to eventually have to make a move to upgrade their rotation but this is still a solid team despite this. The Rockies have one of the best bullpens in baseball with guys like Huston Street and Matt Belisle. The Rockies offense is going to win them games this year though. All they need is solid efforts out of their pitching rotation to win games. Troy Tulowitzki might just be the best shortstop in baseball as he hit .317 last year with 27 home runs. He was ridiculously good last season. I'm a big Seth Smith fan and although he didn't have the best season last year, I fully expect him to put it together this year. Dexter Fowler has been a highly regarded prospects for year and wasn't that great last season but he'll probably put it together at some point during this season. Carlos Gonzalez was off the charts good last year. He hit .336 with 34 home runs and drove in 117 RBI's. This Rockies team has far from the best pitching in baseball but I think the offense is going to carry this team right into the playoffs and this team is going to surprise some people this season.
The defending World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants bring back basically everyone from last year's team. But like the Reds, I fully expect this team to fall this season. There's no denying that the Giants have one of the best rotations in baseball with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain leading the rotation. Madison Bumgarner was very good in his rookie season for the Giants as well and Jonathan Sanchez was very solid as well. The Giants have a very good bullpen as well anchored by closer Brian Wilson who was fantastic (and crazy) all of last season. Sergio Romo is an excellent reliever as well. The problem I have with this Giants team is I don't think the pitching can carry them this season and this offense isn't that great. There's no denying that last year's NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey is great but outside of him, there's so many question marks but I guess this was also the case with last year's Giants team and fielding and pitching led them to a World Series win. The Giants really need Pablo Sandoval to hit like he did in 2009 because he was very average last season and when he isn't hitting, he's bringing below-average defense to the hot corner.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were a team on the rise 3 years ago and were the best team in baseball for much of the 2009 season but now they're a team that isn't very good. They have a great pitching rotation led by Clayton Kershaw who will continue to improve this season. Jon Garland was very good with the Padres last season and hopes to continue his success with the Dodgers this year. The Dodgers acquired Ted Lilly from the Cubs for Blake DeWitt at the trade deadline last year and Lilly went 7-4 with a 3.54 ERA for them. Chad Billingsley had a very solid season for them as well last year. Even Hiroki Kuroda who figures to be their 5th starter this year put up good numbers last season. The Dodgers have no problems when it comes to starting pitching. The Dodger bullpen is average led by closer Jonathan Broxton who had his worst season as a closer last year blowing 7 games. Hong-Chih Kuo was very good for them last year in the set-up role putting up a 1.20 ERA in 60 innings pitched. The Dodgers added World Series MVP Juan Uribe this offseason who hit 24 home runs during the season last year. James Loney was a guy who people thought had potential to be one of the better hitters in the game but he has not lived up to the hype and was very average at first base for the Dodgers last season. Rafeal Furcal was very good when he wasn't injured last year hitting .300. Matt Kemp had the worst season of his young career last year and I fully expect him to bounce back and have a good season this year. This Dodgers team looks very solid all around but for some reason, I can't put them ahead of the Giants and Rockies. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they return to 2009 form and put up a great record.
The San Diego Padres were the biggest surprise of 2010 until they fell apart in September last year. They traded Adrian Gonzalez this offseason and I fully expect them to return to mediocrity this season. The Padres still have probably one of the best bullpens in baseball led by closer Heath Bell who was one of the best closers in baseball last season. The Padres also have Luke Gregerson who started off fantastic last season but fell apart like his team after the All Star Break. I just think the Padres were a team who overplayed their abilities for most of the season last year and showed their true colors in September. I do like their addition of centerfielder Cameron Maybin from the Padres and think he will have a good season for them this year. Mat Latos is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and I think Wade LeBlanc will join him in this category.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a mess. They have easily one of the top 5 worst starting rotations in baseball. Daniel Hudson was awesome for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them for Edwin Jackson from the Chicago White Sox. But after Hudson you have Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, and Kevin Mulvey. Yikes. Seriously even this team's bullpen is a joke. JJ Putz who was solid last year with the White Sox is the closer but outside of him there's a bunch of no-names. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, this year they might get prospect Jarrod Parker on the team after missing all of last year with an injury. Outside of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton and Chris Young who had a nice comeback year last season, this offense is filled with a bunch of holes. The Diamondbacks are far way off from making the playoffs again.
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